02 December 2009

Is LAKAS-KAMPI Making Too Many Assumptions?

LAKAS-KAMPI
As the road to the 2010 Presidential Election draws near or exactly six months from now, it appears that the ruling LAKAS-KAMPI party is assuming that voters has enough reason to vote for their standard bearer, Gilbert Teodoro, just because he had the academic credentials unmatched by the other presidentiables. They also assume that local officials will defect to their party to promote President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's unfinished agenda in Congress, more specifically constitutional change.

This could mean LAKAS-KAMPI supporters will spend resources attacking the other Presidentiables' qualifications and political achievements, while reminding local executives of the benefits on why they should associate themselves with the present administration.

A political assumption among its members is that constitutional change will be popular in the short run - and when the implementation phase begins, it may be unpopular again - but it will, in the long-term, be a bragging point for the party.

A political assumption among its members is that the voters will not see past the possible tandem of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as House Speaker and Gilbert Teodoro as President.

A political assumption among its members is that the party will get no credit for expelling massacre suspect Mayor Andal Ampatuan Jr. as well as no recognition in his prosecution.

A patronizing assumption among its members is that Presidential candidate Gilbert Teodoro will fail to find attractive, moderate local candidates and that will support him campaign in their respective districts in 2010.

A patronizing assumption among its members is that Teodoro isn't charismatic enough to figure out a way to attract more supporters before election takes place.

A corollary assumption for its members is that they cannot build a national movement.

A corollary assumption for its members is that the party consistently underestimate the long-term brand failure of conservatism.

An unspoken assumption among its members is that the economy has put people into a funk. The quicker the economy improves, the more attenuated the incipient populism will be.

An unspoken assumption among its members is that cultural politics, dampened by the failure of the Arroyo presidency and the collapse of the economy last year, are back and tilting the electorate decidedly. Broadly defined, this includes fears about political correctness, gay rights and reproductive health.