01 February 2025

AfD Gaining Ground In Germany's Election Polls

Chancellor Sholz
There is only a few weeks before Germany's general election and a poll has found support for Chancellor Olaf Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) falling sharply while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) saw significant gains.

According to YouGov poll last 29 January, the SPD has dropped by 4 points to 15 percent compared to last week.

The AfD rose by the same amount to 23 percent, which would make it the second-strongest force behind the conservative CDU/CSU alliance on 29 percent. Other polls show the CDU/CSU reaching 30 percent or more.

The Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) also saw support fall, with the former now at 13 percent, while the FDP has below the 5 percent threshold typically needed to enter the Bundestag, Germany's lower house of parliament.

The Left party rose by one point to 5 percent, meaning that it would be represented in the next Bundestag. The same would apply to the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which remained unchanged at 6 percent.

The survey was conducted from 24 to 27 January, days after a man and a young boy were killed in a knife attack in Bavaria. The suspect in the killings is a 28-year-old Afghan citizen whose application to remain in Germany had been rejected.

Following the attack, centre-right opposition leader Friedrich Merz said the CDU/CSU bloc would push to tighten migration policy, with votes on two motions expected in the Bundestag.

The issue of migration is now an important topic for 36 percent of respondents, up from 23 percent the previous week.

According to the YouGov poll, among voters of almost all parties, this is now the most important issue that politicians should address.

Germany goes to the polls on 23 February following the collapse of Scholz's three-party coalition in November.