President Benigno Aquino III was able to convince the biggest Muslim rebel group in the Philippines to sit down with the government and sign the historic pact on 27 March 2014. The event marked the end to one of Asia's longest and deadliest conflicts.
After four decades of fighting that has claimed tens of thousands of lives, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) signed the peace deal with Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak witnessing the high-profile ceremony in Manila. The MILF also promised to give up their arms for an autonomous homeland.
However, there are no guarantees the peace deal will be implemented by the middle of 2016, a crucial deadline as that is when Aquino is required by the constitution to end his six-year term. The President and his administration will have to address several issues first, including some very powerful lobby groups.
First, Aquino needs to convince Congress to pass a "basic law" to create the Bangsamoro autonomous region, ideally by the end of this year to allow time for other steps such as a local plebiscite. Even if the President is enjoying a record-high popularity compared to previous leaders, it does not automatically translate to an assurance that the law will not be watered down.
Second, everyone agrees that the powerful Christian politicians in Mindanao are regarded as potential deal breakers. These power brokers may see the peace pact as a way to utilize and promote their own selfish political agenda during the 2016 national elections and create ways to attack the provisions of the deal or work for its acceptance to their constituents.
Third, even if the deal gets the approval of Congress and has an accompanying “basic law,” the President and his legal team will still have to deal with the challenge coming from the Supreme Court. It was not too long ago (2008) when the highest judiciary body struck down a planned peace deal the MILF had negotiated with Aquino's predecessor, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.
Fourth, Islamic militants opposed to the peace deal are another threat, and could continue to create enduring violence in Mindanao. Among the potential spoilers is the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), an MILF splinter group of a few hundred militants that has carried out deadly attacks in the south in recent years.
"We will continue to fight against the government of the Republic of the Philippines because we are for independence and nothing else," BIFF spokesman Abu Missry Mama told the media by phone from his southern hideout.
Lastly, the MILF will not give up its arms or the identities of its fighters until the basic law has been passed. With an estimated 10,000 strong fighters, it is not certain if the MILF leadership can control the temptation of some not to commit any criminal activity that could jeopardize the fragile situation.
After four decades of fighting that has claimed tens of thousands of lives, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) signed the peace deal with Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak witnessing the high-profile ceremony in Manila. The MILF also promised to give up their arms for an autonomous homeland.
However, there are no guarantees the peace deal will be implemented by the middle of 2016, a crucial deadline as that is when Aquino is required by the constitution to end his six-year term. The President and his administration will have to address several issues first, including some very powerful lobby groups.
First, Aquino needs to convince Congress to pass a "basic law" to create the Bangsamoro autonomous region, ideally by the end of this year to allow time for other steps such as a local plebiscite. Even if the President is enjoying a record-high popularity compared to previous leaders, it does not automatically translate to an assurance that the law will not be watered down.
Second, everyone agrees that the powerful Christian politicians in Mindanao are regarded as potential deal breakers. These power brokers may see the peace pact as a way to utilize and promote their own selfish political agenda during the 2016 national elections and create ways to attack the provisions of the deal or work for its acceptance to their constituents.
Third, even if the deal gets the approval of Congress and has an accompanying “basic law,” the President and his legal team will still have to deal with the challenge coming from the Supreme Court. It was not too long ago (2008) when the highest judiciary body struck down a planned peace deal the MILF had negotiated with Aquino's predecessor, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.
Fourth, Islamic militants opposed to the peace deal are another threat, and could continue to create enduring violence in Mindanao. Among the potential spoilers is the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), an MILF splinter group of a few hundred militants that has carried out deadly attacks in the south in recent years.
"We will continue to fight against the government of the Republic of the Philippines because we are for independence and nothing else," BIFF spokesman Abu Missry Mama told the media by phone from his southern hideout.
Lastly, the MILF will not give up its arms or the identities of its fighters until the basic law has been passed. With an estimated 10,000 strong fighters, it is not certain if the MILF leadership can control the temptation of some not to commit any criminal activity that could jeopardize the fragile situation.
